El Niño
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The 91 Percent Item: What WMO’s Five-Year Forecast Actually Puts on the Agenda
The WMO puts a 91 percent probability on a year above 1.5°C within five years and 75 percent on the five-year average itself. For any…
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A 2.87°C Anomaly on the Board’s Table: El Niño Moves From Scenario to Baseline
Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature hit 29.65°C on August 9 — 2.87°C above the 1982-2010 average — and NOAA now puts the odds of a strong winter…